Marriage – Argumentative Essay

Marriage is a social institution under which a man and woman establish their decision to live as husband and wife by legal commitment, religious ceremony, etc. This is the kind of marriage that we are all used to. Nowadays, in reality, there are some people who found love not to someone that are the opposite sex, but to those who are the same sex. A lot of people have been debating about the legality of gay marriage. From relating it to religion and its affect on the traditional family values, there are a lot factors that can make this into a controversy. Even though gay marriage is still an illegal action in the majority countries there are some factors that should be considered to make it become legal. Opponents of gay marriage claim that homosexuality is a sin in most religion. However, this statement violates the First Amendment of Constitution about the free exercise of religion on a person’s religious views must be protected. Which means that the government cannot make a law that is based on a certain religion rule. Additionally, the civil marriage and the religion marriage are a total different institution; therefore a law in the government that is based on a religion rule should not be made. Moreover, legalizing gay marriage also consistent with the Equal Right Amendment on the first text about the Equality of rights under the law shall not be denied or abridged by the United States or by any State on account of sex. Therefore the legalization of gay marriage will make an equal marriage for all in the eye of the government based on those two Amendments. The other arguments that the opponents mentioned is that the Institution of Marriage will get less respect and the definition will become unclear. They said that the purpose of marriage which is to pro-create, hence the marriage between a man and women is the possible one. However, when we see the divorce rate in America for the past decade, the number is stable at 50% for the first marriage. This gives the impression that even the straight marriages give less respect to the institution it self. Moreover, if we look into the simple, deeper of marriage it self, marriage is a constitution between two people that are brought together by love. So, love is the basic aspect in this Institution of Marriage. Therefore gay marriage won’t give less respect or make the definition become unclear because basically they already fulfill the ground aspect of marriage, which is love. The final argument from the opponents of gay marriage is that family contains a mother and father. However, this meaning of family has become biased since in reality there are a lot of other families that doesn’t have a mother and father but we can still call them a family. So basically the meaning of family has changed due to the different things that occur in the reality. For instance, single mother and single father families are a common thing nowadays, with this one parent cover the two different role of two parents. Therefore there is no exception for the gay couple if they want to extend their family. As long as they will provide their kids with love, support, shelter, and things that the kids will need. Additionally there are a lot of kids that have been waiting to have their own family, so adoption in gay marriage will help both the kids and the gay couple in creating their own family. In conclusion, gay marriage is just like any other marriage with a twist of the same sex between the couple. Therefore the legalization of gay marriage will make an equal marriage for all in the eye of the government based on those two Amendments. Additionally, gay marriage won’t give less respect or make the definition become unclear because basically they already fulfill the ground aspect of marriage, which is love. Moreover there is no exception for the gay couple if they want to extend their family. As long as they will provide their kids with love, support, shelter, and things that the kids will need because there are a lot of kids that have been waiting to have their own family, so adoption in gay marriage will help both the kids and the gay couple in creating their own family. Furthermore, in my opinion everyone deserve an equal right to marry someone they love because everyone deserves to be happy. SEKAR RINDANG FASHION MANAGEMENT 1401125124 REFERENCES Dictionary. com 5 December 2011 Messerli, Joe. â€Å"Should Same-Sex Marriages be Legalize? † balancedpolitics. org 19 November 2011. 5 December 2011 Tsivkin, Roman. â€Å"Marriage Laws In The USA. † livestrong. com 8 April 2010. 5 December 2011 Wikipedia. com 5 December 2011 Wikipedia. com 5 December 2011 divorceguide. com 5 December 2011

Personal statement Essay

I have come to a point in life that many people have not. I have made a firm decision to recommit myself to pursuing my dreams. While there are those who believe that with an ounce of luck and a ton of persistence anything can be accomplished, I believe that there is no reason to expend so much energy and rely on luck. I believe in taking hold of my destiny and carving out a future for myself based on the decisions that I make in life. Life is simply too short and too precious to be left to luck alone. This is why I have chosen to continue in the pursuit of my higher education in Geography at UC in California. There have been so many opportunities in life that I have not been able to take advantage of because of the competitiveness of the working environment. I believe that this experience and background of mine will help me pursue this dream. Being an expert in this course is only the beginning of a long journey for me. I realize that it will not be easy and I look forward to that challenge. In the short term, I see myself completing this degree and fulfilling the requirements for this course. I believe that this experience will be sufficient to prepare me for the next step which is applying for a good internship position that will give me the training that I need. I eventually plan to pursue larger goals such as taking a doctoral degree and perhaps starting my own business. As the world continues to change and the workplace becomes more and more challenging and competitive, it becomes imperative for anyone looking for a successful career to not only have the drive to succeed but also the training and expertise to do so. Being able to experience all these great and wonderful cultures has created me to be more open-minded on sensitive subjects or people. One tends to give people the benefit of the doubt first no prejudgment. Two years of my high school were spent living in Malaysia, which caused me to appreciate all cultures. I am confident, therefore, that the rich and diverse academic community at UC will definitely be the perfect place for me to learn and be prepared for the challenges that lie ahead. Given my experiences in life and being a diligent student, I have personally experienced how much good work ethic can contribute to the advancement of one’s dream. I have worked tirelessly in the pursuit of my education because it is said that the one thing that nobody can ever take away from you is your education, and that is the one thing that I plan to not only gain for myself but for others as well. I have learned from my parents the critical importance of the law of giving, and I am both attracted and committed to this model of community service, particularly that â€Å"students apply skills to effect social change. † A student, I believe that my experiences as a have shown my commitment to community service for this is a testament to the character of my mother, a living testimonial to the goodwill that I would like to share. As Eleanor Roosevelt once said, â€Å"The future belongs to those who believe in the beauty of their dreams†.

The Determinants of Consumer Price Index in Indonesia

[pic] THE DETERMINANTS OF CONSUMER PRICE INDEX IN INDONESIA Instructor DR. Moussa Larbani Prepared By Ali Faris(G0912449) Imala Hussain(G0822498) Ma Yue(G0918271) Mia Fathia(G0827756) Nurma Saleah(G0912298) Suthinee Suayngam(G0916798) Ulfah Hidayatun(G0815892) ECON 6030 ADVANCE QUANTITATIVE METHOD Term Paper Kulliyah of Economics and Management Sciences Department of Business Administration 2009/2010 Abstract The most well known and widely quoted economic indicator is the CPI (Consumer Price Index).It represents an estimation of the change in prices of consumer goods and services. Generally, it represents a measurement of our expenses on goods and services we use to meet our day-to-day needs. Severe problems to the overall economy can be caused if the prices of consumer goods and services are abruptly changed. This paper attempts to examine the factors that influence the Consumer Price Index. We observe four variables, namely, money supply, gross domestic product, interest rate, and share price.By utilizing quarterly data from 1996 to 2008, this study applies multiple regressions method to find the best model and factors which can explain Consumer Price Index. The result indicates gross domestic product, interest rate, and stock price significant effect to consumer price index, whereas money supply does not have significant effect. This study also finds that the highest Adjusted R2 as goodness criteria of the model is derived when we include all the factors in the model.Hence, we can conclude that those factors have either strong or weak contribution to consumer price index. Keyword: Consumer Price Index, 1. INTRODUCTION From the beginning of civilization, tribes, countries and nations have always been looking for ways to attain prosperity and growth so as to improve the standard of living for their own people. From the times of Caesar to leaders of today such as John F. Keneddy, things haven’t changed much. To attain prosperity one of the most important things is to maintain a healthy economy.However there are many factors that threaten a healthy economy such as inflation, economic recessions and many other factors. Despite all these threats and inevitable slumps and declines in economy, an economy can be monitored and as such Consumer Price Index is one of the most important economic indicators. Using consumer pricing index, the health of the economy can be in check and the state can take necessary preventive measures otherwise not taken could lead to devastating effects in the form of high unemployment, bankruptcies, major financial losses etc.The CPI is a fixed-basket price index as it represents the price of a constant quantities basket of goods and services purchased by the average consumer. CPI is one of the most frequently used  statistics for identifying periods of inflation or deflation. This is  because large rises in CPI during a short period of time typically denote periods of inflation and  large drops in CPI du ring a short period of time usually  mark  periods of  deflation. It is compiled by the Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics.In order to get the final result for the CPI, wide researches of the prices of the included in the consumer basket goods and services are made. Then they are entered into a special computer program that makes the calculations. The importance of CPI is viewed in the fact that the estimations of other products, services and benefits are directly linked to the levels of the CPI. For example, if the CPI experiences an increase in its value, then the Social Securities benefits will rise as well. Other things that are directly linked to CPI include: †¢ Wages †¢ Lease agreements Union contracts †¢ Benefit statements and etc. Severe problems to the overall economy can be caused if the prices of consumer goods and services are abruptly changed. Most people associate the concept of CPI with inflation. An increase in the value of the CPI means that an increase in inflation has been observed. When inflation increases the purchasing power of money is lost and people will change their spending habits as they meet their purchasing thresholds and producers will suffer and be forced to cut output. This can be readily tied to higher unemployment rates.The whole economy falls into a recession. The objective of this paper is to find a linear regression model that will accurately estimate the consumer pricing index of Indonesia by using the following independent variables, 1) money supply, 2) Gross domestic product, 3) interest rates and 4) stock prices. In economics, money supply is the total amount of money available in an economy at a particular point in time. There are several ways to define â€Å"money†, but standard measures usually include currency in circulation and demand deposits.The gross domestic product (GDP) or gross domestic income (GDI) is a basic measure of a country's economic performance and is the m arket value of all final goods and services made within the borders of a country in a year. It is a fundamental measurement of production and is very often positively correlated with the standard of living. An interest rate is the price a borrower pays for the use of money they do not own, for instance a small company might borrow from a bank to kick start their business, and the return a lender receives for deferring the use of funds, by lending it to the borrower.Interest rates are normally expressed as a percentage rate over the period of one year. Stock Price in this paper is referred to as Stock Market index which is based on a statistical compilation of the share prices of a number of representative stocks. We observe four variables namely, money supply, gross domestic product, interest rate, and stock price. By utilizing quarterly data from 1996 to 2008, this study applies multiple regressions method to find the best model and factors which can explain Consumer Price Index (S ee appendix 1 and 2). 2. METHODOLOGY 2. 1Bivariate Pearson CorrelationPearson [pic]is typically used to describe the strength of the linear relationship between two quantitative variables. Often, these two variables are designated [pic](predictor) and [pic](outcome). Pearson [pic] has values that range from -1. 00 to +1. 00. The sign of [pic]provides information about the direction of the relationship between [pic] and [pic]. A positive correlation indicates that as scores on [pic] increase, scores on [pic]also tend to increase; a negative correlation indicates that as scores on [pic] increase, scores on [pic]neither increase nor decrease in a linear manner.The absolute magnitude of Pearson [pic] provides information about the strength of the linear association between scores on [pic] and [pic]. For values of [pic]close to 0, there is no linear association between [pic] and [pic]. When [pic]= +1. 00, there is a perfect positive linear association; when [pic]= -1. 00, there is a perf ect negative linear association. Intermediate values of [pic]correspond to intermediate strength of the relationship (Warner, 2008). 2. 1. 1Assumption for Pearson [pic] (Warner, 2008)The assumptions that need to be met for Pearson [pic] to be an appropriate statistic to describe the relationship between a pair of variables are as follows: 1. Each scores on [pic] should be independent of other [pic] scores (and each score on [pic]should be independent of other [pic]scores). 2. Scores on both [pic]and [pic]should be quantitative and normally distributed. 3. Scores on [pic]should be linearly related to scores on[pic]. 4. [pic], [pic]scores should have a bivariate normal distribution. 2. 1. Computation of Pearson [pic] (Warner, 2008) Formula to calculate Pearson [pic]from the raw scores on [pic]and [pic]is as follows: [pic](2. 1) 2. 1. 3Correlation matrix (Warner, 2008) A correlation matrix usually denoted by R; it contains the correlations among all possible pairs of [pic]variables. Th e entire set of correlation in an R matrix is as follow [pic] R = [pic][pic] Note several characteristics of this matrix. All the diagonal elements equal 1 (because the correlation of a variable with itself is, by definition, 1. 0).The matrix is â€Å"symmetric† because each element below the diagonal equals one corresponding element above the diagonal. 2. 2Multiple Regressions Multiple Regression analysis provides an equation that predicts raw score on a quantitative [pic] variable from raw scores on [pic] variables, with [pic]. The predictor or [pic] variables are usually also quantitative, but it can also be a dichotomous variable (dummy variable). Usually, regression analysis is used in non experimental research situations, in which the researcher has manipulated none of the variables.In the absence of an experimental design, causal inferences cannot be made. However, researchers often select at least some of the predictor variables for regression analysis because they be lieve that these might be â€Å"causes† of the outcome variable. If an [pic] variable that is theorized to be a â€Å"cause† of [pic]fails to account for a significant amount of variance in the [pic] variable in the regression analysis, this outcome may weaken the researcher’s belief that the [pic] variable has a causal connection with [pic].On the other hand, if a [pic] variable that is thought to be â€Å"causal† does uniquely predict a significant proportion of variance in [pic] even when confounded variables or competing causal variables are statistically controlled, this outcome may be interpreted as consistent with the possibility of causality. (Warner, 2008) 1. The Multiple Regressions Model Equation The raw score version of regression equation with [pic] predictor variables is written as follows [pic](2. 2) here [pic]is the predicted score on the outcome ([pic]) variable, [pic]is the intercept or constant term, [pic]are regression coefficients, an d [pic]are predictor variables. The [pic]regression coefficient represent partial slope. The [pic] slope represents the predicted change in [pic] for a one-unit increase in[pic], controlling for [pic](i. e. , controlling for all other predictor variables included in the regression analysis). The standard score version of a regression equation with [pic] predictors is represented as follows: [pic](2. ) where [pic]is [pic]scores on [pic], [pic]are beta coefficient that is used to predict The beta coefficients in the standard score version of the regression can be compared across variables to assess which of the predictor variables are more strongly related to the [pic]outcome variable when all the variables are represented in [pic]score form. Beta coefficient may be influenced by many types of artifacts such as unreliability of measurement and restricted range of scores in the sample. (Warner, 2008) 2. Model buildingThis paper use Stepwise regression model building to develop the leas t squares regression in steps, either to forward selection backward elimination, or through standards stepwise regression. The coefficient of partial determination is the measure of the marginal contribution of each independent variable, given that other independent variables are in the model. 2. 2. 3Statistics Sum-of-squares terms. Several regression statistics are computed as functions of the sums of-squares terms: [pic] (2. 4) Partitioning of variation.The regression equation is estimated such that the total sum-of squares can be partitioned into components due to regression and residuals: SST = SSR+ SSE(2. 5) Coefficient of determination. The explanatory power of the regression is summarized by its â€Å"R-squared† value, computed from the sums-of-squares terms as [pic](2. 6) R2, also called the coefficient of determination, is often described as the proportion of variance â€Å"accounted for†, â€Å"explained†, or â€Å"described† by regression. It i s important to keep in mind that a high R2 does not imply causation.The relative sizes of the sums-of-squares terms indicate how â€Å"good† the regression is in terms of fitting the calibration data. If the regression is â€Å"perfect†, all residuals are zero, SSE is zero, and R2 is 1. If the regression is a total failure, the sum-of-squares of residuals equals the total sum-of-squares, no variance is accounted for by regression, and R2 is zero. Adjusted R2. The R2 value for a regression can be made arbitrarily high simply by including more and more predictors in the model. The adjusted R2 is one of several statistics that attempts to compensate for this artificial increase in accuracy.The adjusted R2 is given by: [pic](2. 7) n = sample size (e. g. , number of years of data in calibration period) p = number of predictors in the model, not counting the constant term As shown by the equation, R2 with hat is lower than R2 if the model has more than one predictor. Adding predictors has the effect of increasing the difference between R2 with hat and R2. Adjusted R2 is also useful in comparing among models. ANOVA table and definition of â€Å"mean squared† terms. The sums-of-squares terms and related statistics are often summarized in an Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) table: [pic] Source= source of variationSS= sum-of-squares term df= degrees of freedom for SS term MS= â€Å"mean squared† terms The mean squared terms are the sums-of-squares terms Standard error of the estimate. The residual mean square (MSE) is the sample estimate of the variance of the regression residuals. The population value of the error term is sometimes written as ? e2 while the sample estimate is given by se2 = MSE(2. 8) where MSE has been defined previously. The square root of the residual mean square is called the root-mean-square error (RMSE), or the standard error of the estimate. [pic](2. 9) The subscript â€Å"c† is attached (RMSEc) in (4. ) to distingu ish the RMSE derived from calibration from the root-mean-square error derived by cross-validation (see later). F ratio or â€Å"overall F†. Recall that the explanatory power of a regression is given by the regression R2, which is computed from sums-of-squares terms. The F-ratio, or overall F, which is computed from the mean squared terms in the ANOVA table, estimates the statistical significance of the regression equation. The F-ratio is given by [pic](2. 10) The advantage of the F- ratio over R2 is that the F- ratio takes into account the degrees of freedom, which depend on the sample size and the number of predictors in the model.A model can have a high R2 and still not be statistically significant if the sample size is not large compared with the number of predictors in the model. The F- ratio incorporates sample size and number of predictors in an assessment of significance of the relationship. The significance of the F- ratio is obtained by referring to a table of the F distribution, using degrees of freedom {df1,df2}, where df1 and df2 are the degrees of freedom for the regression mean square and residual mean square from the ANOVA table.How to reject or accept F-test (for overall significance) HO: ? 1 = ? 2 HA : ? 1 and ? 2 not both zero ? = . 05 Decision: Reject Ho if the f-stat falls in the rejection area (p values > ? = . 05) [pic] T-test. The T-test shows if there is a linear relationship between the variable xi and y. The test statistic: [pic](2. 11) How to reject or accept T-test (for individual significance) HO: ? 1 = 0 HA : ? 1 ? 0 ? = . 05 Decision: Reject Ho if the test statistic for each variable falls in the rejection region (p values < . 05) [pic]Confidence interval for estimated coefficients. If the regression assumptions on the residuals are satisfied, including the normality assumption, then the sampling distribution of an estimated regression coefficient is normal with a variance proportional to the residual mean square (MSE). Th e variance of the estimator also depends on the variances and covariances of the predictors. The idea is best illustrated for the case of simple linear regression, for which the variance of the regression coefficient is given by [pic](2. 12)Where Se2 is the residual mean square, xi is the value of the predictor in year xi with hat is the mean of the predictor, and the summation is over the n years in the calibration period. The 100 (1 ? ?) % confidence interval is [pic], where t? /2 is obtained from s t distribution with n-2 degrees of freedom. For more than one predictor, the confidence intervals for regression can be computed similarly, but the equation is more complicated. The equation for the variances and covariances of estimated coefficients is expressed in matrix terms by [pic](2. 13) where X is the time series matrix of predictors.This equation returns a matrix, with the variances of the parameters along the diagonal, and the covariances as the off-diagonal elements (Weisber g 1985, p. 44). The appropriate degrees of freedom of the t distribution is df = n ? K ? 1, where K is the number of predictors in the model, and n is the sample size. Multicolinearity The predictors in a regression model are often called the â€Å"independent variables†, but this term does not imply that the predictors are themselves independent statistically from one another. In fact, for natural systems, the predictors can be highly intercorrelated. Multicolinearity† is a term reserved to describe the case when the intercorrelation of predictor variables is high. It has been noted that the variance of the estimated regression coefficients depends on the intercorrelation of predictors. Haan (2002) concisely summarizes the effects of multicolinearity on the regression model. Multicolinearity does not invalidate the regression model in the sense that the predictive value of the equation may still be good as long as the prediction are based on combinations of predictors within the same multivariate space used to calibrate the equation.But there are several negative effects of multicolinearity. First, the variance of the regression coefficients can be inflated so much that the individual coefficients are not statistically significant – even though the overall regression equation is strong and the predictive ability good. Second, the relative magnitudes and even the signs of the coefficients may defy interpretation. For example, the regression weight on a tree-ring index in a multivariate regression equation to predict precipitation might be negative even though the tree-ring index by itself is positively correlated with precipitation.Third, the values of the individual regression coefficients may change radically with the removal or addition of a predictor variable in the equation. In fact, the sign of the coefficient might even switch. Signs of multicolinearity. Signs of multicolinearity include 1) high correlation between pairs of predictor variables, 2) regression coefficients whose signs or magnitudes do not make good physical sense, 3) statistically non-significant regression coefficients on important predictors, and 4) extreme sensitivity of sign or magnitude of regression coefficients to insertion or deletion of a predictor variable.Variance Inflation Factor (VIF). The Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) is a statistic that can be used to identify multicolinearity in a matrix of predictor variables. â€Å"Variance Inflation† refers here to the mentioned effect of multicolinearity on the variance of estimated regression coefficients. Multicolinearity depends not just on the bivariate correlations between pairs of predictors, but on the multivariate predictability of any one predictor from the other predictors. Accordingly, the VIF is based on the multiple coefficient of determination in regression of eachpredictor in multivariate linear regression on all the other predictors: pic](2. 14) where Ri2 is the multip le coefficient of determination in a regression of the ith predictor on all other predictors, and i VIF is the variance inflation factor associated with the ith predictor. Note that if the ith predictor is independent of the other predictors, the variance inflation factor is one, while if the ith predictor can be almost perfectly predicted from the other predictors, the variance inflation factor approaches infinity. In that case the variance of the estimated regression coefficients is unbounded.Multicolinearity is said to be a problem when the variance inflation factors of one or more predictors becomes large. How large it appears to be a subjective judgement. According to Haan (2002), some researchers use a VIF of 5 and others use a VIF of 10 as a critical threshold. These VIF values correspond, respectively, to Ri2 values of 0. 80 and 0. 90. Some compute the average VIF for all predictors and declare that an average â€Å"considerably† larger than one indicates multicolinea rity (Haan, 2002).At any rate, it is important to keep in mind that multicolinearity requires strong intercorrelation of predictors, not just non-zero intercorrelation. The VIF is closely related to a statistic call the tolerance, which is 1/VIF. Some statistics packages report the VIF and some report the tolerance (Haan 2002). 3. MODEL SPESIFICATION AND DATA SOURCE Based on the theory review in the previous section, we build the following specification to capture the determinants of money supply in Indonesia: CPI = ? 0 + ? 1M1 + ? 2GDP + ? 3IR + ? 4SP + ? The variables are defined as followed: 1.Money supply (M1) is M0 (physical currency) and demand deposits, which are checking accounts. This is used as a measurement for economists trying to quantify the amount of money in circulation. The M1 is a very liquid measure of the money supply, as it contains cash and assets that can quickly be converted to currency. 2. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the income of individuals or nations after adjusting for inflation. 3. Consumer price index (CPI) is an index number measuring the average price of consumer goods and services purchased by households. 4. Interest rate (IR) is a fee paid on borrowed capital. . Share Price (SP) is the price of one share of stock. This paper uses quarterly data, from quarter 1 of 1996 to quarter 2 of 2008 that is taken from International Financial Statistic. We also use SPSS software to regress the model above. 4. VALUATION 4. 1Model Estimation We will present the result of data analysis using Multiple Regression Analysis. Multiple Regression analysis provides an equation that predicts raw score on a quantitative [pic] variable from raw scores on [pic] variables, with[pic]. The best model is indicated by the highest Adjusted R2 and the lowest standard errors.In this study, consumer price indexes (CPI) were predicted from the following variables: money supply (M1), gross domestic product (GDP), interest rate (IR) and share price (SP). The sample size[pic]is 50. 4. 2Bivariate correlation In this part, we will observe the strength of the linear relationship between each independent variable and CPI. Table 1. Correlations | | |CPI |M1 |GDP |IR |SP | |1996Q1 |11. 716111 |19. 30 |4. 771904 |3. 788341 |3. 853983 |0. 065642 | |1996Q2 |11. 766373 |19. 4 |4. 819983 |3. 822246 |3. 858643 |0. 036398 | |1996Q3 |11. 827298 |19. 17 |4. 717570 |3. 877778 |3. 863081 |-0. 014697 | |1996Q4 |11. 879324 |19. 16 |4. 810590 |3. 909344 |3. 872063 |-0. 037281 | |1997Q1 |11. 889998 |18. 98 |4. 934683 |3. 905124 |3. 897606 |-0. 007518 | |1997Q2 |11. 914423 |18. 72 |4. 941414 |3. 921527 |3. 906252 |-0. 015275 | |1997Q3 |12. 002958 |23. 38 |4. 78997 |4. 036802 |3. 924765 |-0. 112037 | |1997Q4 |12. 039144 |26. 19 |4. 477901 |4. 111444 |3. 959830 |-0. 151614 | |1998Q1 |12. 262335 |26. 33 |4. 624532 |4. 270861 |4. 140733 |-0. 130127 | |1998Q2 |12. 314070 |32. 16 |4. 495154 |4. 363053 |4. 309088 |-0. 053965 | |1998Q3 |12. 484700 |34. 93 |4. 308177 |4. 530508 |4. 491942 |-0. 038566 | |1998Q4 |12. 457244 |35. 20 |4. 294247 |4. 12515 |4. 538626 |0. 026111 | |1999Q1 |12. 510708 |34. 11 |4. 396215 |4. 536868 |4. 585091 |0. 048223 | |1999Q2 |12. 512071 |30. 34 |4. 767910 |4. 478028 |4. 578437 |0. 100409 | |1999Q3 |12. 533785 |24. 52 |4. 754038 |4. 455257 |4. 555728 |0. 100470 | |1999Q4 |12. 525806 |21. 68 |4. 830264 |4. 422381 |4. 555029 |0. 132648 | |2000Q1 |12. 689215 |19. 58 |4. 798267 |4. 536245 |4. 79349 |0. 043104 | |2000Q2 |12. 725801 |18. 46 |4. 615507 |4. 572988 |4. 589384 |0. 016396 | |2000Q3 |12. 796032 |17. 98 |4. 534614 |4. 630870 |4. 611431 |-0. 019440 | |2000Q4 |12. 817033 |17. 80 |4. 436443 |4. 654596 |4. 639514 |-0. 015082 | |2001Q1 |12. 894097 |17. 85 |4. 423641 |4. 715383 |4. 668689 |-0. 046693 | |2001Q2 |12. 957670 |18. 26 |4. 396349 |4. 769620 |4. 695093 |-0. 74527 | |2001Q3 |12. 980581 |18. 88 |4. 453272 |4. 786409 |4. 731538 |-0. 054871 | |2001Q4 |12. 967675 |19. 20 |4. 357638 |4. 787355 |4. 758569 |-0. 02878 5 | |2002Q1 |13. 014972 |19. 32 |4. 495629 |4. 812124 |4. 804455 |-0. 007668 | |2002Q2 |13. 038967 |19. 18 |4. 670443 |4. 813862 |4. 813371 |-0. 000492 | |2002Q3 |13. 083051 |18. 87 |4. 499660 |4. 860963 |4. 830240 |-0. 030724 | |2002Q4 |13. 67842 |18. 42 |4. 383610 |4. 856585 |4. 856372 |-0. 000213 | |2003Q1 |13. 119451 |18. 20 |4. 382903 |4. 894774 |4. 879052 |-0. 015721 | |2003Q2 |13. 127729 |17. 68 |4. 568618 |4. 880785 |4. 881073 |0. 000288 | |2003Q3 |13. 168067 |16. 44 |4. 706932 |4. 890676 |4. 889544 |-0. 001132 | |2003Q4 |13. 145558 |15. 43 |4. 867750 |4. 851847 |4. 910358 |0. 058511 | |2004Q1 |13. 193018 |14. 0 |5. 023394 |4. 869902 |4. 926710 |0. 056808 | |2004Q2 |13. 243557 |14. 28 |5. 023446 |4. 905169 |4. 946239 |0. 041070 | |2004Q3 |13. 296856 |13. 88 |5. 055704 |4. 940406 |4. 956855 |0. 016449 | |2004Q4 |13. 303815 |13. 54 |5. 255827 |4. 925389 |4. 972241 |0. 046852 | |2005Q1 |13. 357168 |13. 36 |5. 375579 |4. 954380 |5. 001198 |0. 046817 | |2005Q2 |13. 415743 |13. 29 |5. 03708 |4. 996403 |5. 019906 |0. 023503 | |2005Q3 |13. 477237 |13. 78 |5. 410051 |5. 046527 |5. 037628 |-0. 008900 | |2005Q4 |13. 539065 |15. 78 |5. 387751 |5. 110080 |5. 135998 |0. 025918 | |2006Q1 |13. 570606 |16. 34 |5. 539352 |5. 124611 |5. 157502 |0. 032891 | |2006Q2 |13. 608447 |16. 23 |5. 624725 |5. 145281 |5. 164111 |0. 018831 | |2006Q3 |13. 676882 |16. 00 |5. 78345 |5. 191494 |5. 176234 |-0. 015260 | |2006Q4 |13. 679898 |15. 35 |5. 839146 |5. 174745 |5. 194761 |0. 020015 | |2007Q1 |13. 732362 |14. 70 |5. 885796 |5. 206364 |5. 219177 |0. 012812 | |2007Q2 |13. 777640 |14. 08 |6. 039466 |5. 223014 |5. 222613 |-0. 000401 | |2007Q3 |13. 848229 |13. 56 |6. 144445 |5. 264208 |5. 239273 |-0. 024935 | |2007Q4 |13. 855779 |13. 11 |6. 305412 |5. 52354 |5. 259836 |0. 007483 | |2008Q1 |13. 930695 |12. 94 |6. 292750 |5. 309960 |5. 292817 |-0. 017143 | |2008Q2 |14. 023264 |12. 95 |6. 172412 |5. 392000 |5. 199684 |-0. 192316 | |   |   |   |   |   | |0. 175227 | From the table above, we found the sum square value of error is 0. 175. Predict Consumer Price index (CPI) for a quarter in which the logarithmic of GDP is 12. 89 logarithmic of Interest Rate is 17. 5 and logarithmic of Share Price is 4. 42 LCPI = -4. 927 + 0. 769 (LGDP) + 0. 007 (LIR) – 0. 090 (LSP) = -4. 927 + 0. 769 (12. 89) + 0. 007 (17. 52) – 0. 090 (4. 42) = 4. 72 Confidence interval for the mean LCPI value : [pic]; [pic] [pic] [pic] Prediction interval for the mean LCPI value : [pic]; [pic] [pic] [pic] CONCLUSION We have employed multiple regression analysis method, which involve five variables which are expected to affecting money supply. They are consumer price index, interest rate, stock price, GDP, and money supply [M1]. The data are selected from Indonesia international financial statistics.In the recent years Indonesia has been successfully controlling its money supply to get stability in economic circumstances. From the study we found out that there is strong relations hip between consumer price index [CPI]and GDP. When the Gross Domestic Product [GDP] increases, it will also increase consumer price index as these two have linear relationship. Also there is strong correlation between money supply and consumer price index, which means that mean of CPI increase when money supply increases. Addition to this there is positive correlation between stock price and CPI, when stock price increase it tend to increase CPI.However there is negative correlation between interest rate and CPI, when interest rate increases, CPI decreases. From our finding it shows that R-square is 96 percent, which means it is a good model to describe the relation between CPI and other variables we use in the study. REFERENCES Lawrence S. Meyers, Glenn Gamst, and A. J. Guarino. (2006). Applied Multivariate Research Design and Interpretation. Thousand Oaks, London, and New Delhi: Sage Publications. Miles, Jeremy and Mark Shevlin. (2001). Applying Regression & Correlation: A Guide for Students and Researchers. London: Sage Publications. Warner, R. M. (2008).Applied Statistics From Bivariate Through Multivariate Techniques. Los Angeles, London, New Delhi, Singapore: SAGE Publications. Watson, Collin J. and et al. (1993). Statistics for Management and Economics 5th Edition. Massachusetts: Allyn and Bacon. http://www. investopedia. com http://www. stock-market-investors. com http://www. wikipedia. org Appendix 1. Variables Data |   |M1 |Stock Price |CPI |INTEREST RATE |GDP | | | | | | | | |1996Q1 |53162. 00 |118. 14 |47. 8 |19. 30 |122530. 00 | |1996Q2 |56448. 00 |123. 96 |47. 40 |19. 24 |128846. 00 | |1996Q3 |59684. 00 |111. 90 |47. 61 |19. 17 |136940. 00 | |1996Q4 |64089. 00 |122. 80 |48. 04 |19. 16 |144253. 00 | |1997Q1 |63565. 00 |139. 03 |49. 28 |18. 98 |145801. 00 | |1997Q2 |69950. 00 |139. 97 |49. 71 |18. 72 |149406. 00 | |1997Q3 |66258. 00 |118. 99 |50. 64 |23. 8 |163237. 00 | |1997Q4 |78343. 00 |88. 05 |52. 45 |26. 19 |169252. 00 | |1998Q1 |98270. 30 |101. 96 |62. 85 |26. 33 |211575. 00 | |1998Q2 |109480. 00 |89. 58 |74. 37 |32. 16 |222809. 00 | |1998Q3 |102563. 00 |74. 30 |89. 29 |34. 93 |264263. 00 | |1998Q4 |101197. 00 |73. 28 |93. 56 |35. 20 |257106. 00 | |1999Q1 |105705. 00 |81. 14 |98. 01 |34. 11 |271226. 0 | |1999Q2 |105964. 00 |117. 67 |97. 36 |30. 34 |271596. 00 | |1999Q3 |118124. 00 |116. 05 |95. 18 |24. 52 |277558. 00 | |1999Q4 |124633. 00 |125. 24 |95. 11 |21. 68 |275352. 00 | |2000Q1 |124663. 00 |121. 30 |97. 45 |19. 58 |324232. 00 | |2000Q2 |133832. 00 |101. 04 |98. 43 |18. 46 |336314. 00 | |2000Q3 |135430. 00 |93. 19 |100. 63 |17. 98 |360783. 00 | |2000Q4 |162186. 0 |84. 47 |103. 49 |17. 80 |368440. 00 | |2001Q1 |148375. 00 |83. 40 |106. 56 |17. 85 |397956. 00 | |2001Q2 |160142. 00 |81. 15 |109. 41 |18. 26 |424077. 00 | |2001Q3 |164237. 00 |85. 91 |113. 47 |18. 88 |433905. 00 | |2001Q4 |177731. 00 |78. 07 |116. 58 |19. 20 |428341. 00 | |2002Q1 |166173. 00 |89. 62 |122. 05 |19. 32 |449087. 00 | |2002Q2 |174017. 00 |106. 5 |123. 15 |19. 18 |459993. 00 | |2002Q3 |181791. 00 |89. 99 |125. 24 |18. 87 |480725. 00 | |2002Q4 |191939. 00 |80. 13 |128. 56 |18. 42 |473469. 00 | |2003Q1 |181239. 00 |80. 07 |131. 51 |18. 20 |498546. 00 | |2003Q2 |195219. 00 |96. 41 |131. 77 |17. 68 |502690. 00 | |2003Q3 |207587. 00 |110. 71 |132. 89 |16. 44 |523382. 00 | |2003Q4 |223799. 00 |130. 03 |135. 9 |15. 43 |511733. 00 | |2004Q1 |219087. 00 |151. 93 |137. 93 |14. 80 |536605. 00 | |2004Q2 |226147. 00 |151. 93 |140. 65 |14. 28 |564422. 00 | |2004Q3 |234676. 00 |156. 92 |142. 15 |13. 88 |595321. 00 | |2004Q4 |245946. 00 |191. 68 |144. 35 |13. 54 |599478. 00 | |2005Q1 |244003. 00 |216. 07 |148. 59 |13. 36 |632331. 00 | |2005Q2 |261814. 00 |222. 23 |151. 40 |13. 9 |670476. 00 | |2005Q3 |267762. 00 |223. 64 |154. 10 |13. 78 |713000. 00 | |2005Q4 |271166. 00 |218. 71 |170. 03 |15. 78 |758475. 00 | |2006Q1 |270425. 00 |254. 51 |173. 73 |16. 34 |782779. 00 | |2006Q2 |303803. 00 |277. 20 |174. 88 |16. 23 |812968. 00 | |200 6Q3 |323885. 00 |292. 47 |177. 02 |16. 00 |870551. 00 | |2006Q4 |347013. 00 |343. 49 |180. 33 |15. 35 |873181. 0 | |2007Q1 |331736. 00 |359. 89 |184. 78 |14. 70 |920214. 00 | |2007Q2 |371768. 00 |419. 67 |185. 42 |14. 08 |962838. 00 | |2007Q3 |400075. 00 |466. 12 |188. 53 |13. 56 |1033260. 00 | |2007Q4 |450055. 00 |547. 53 |192. 45 |13. 11 |1041090. 00 | |2008Q1 |409768. 00 |540. 64 |198. 90 |12. 94 |1122080. 00 | |2008Q2 |453093. 00 |479. 34 |181. 22 |12. 95 |1230910. 00 |Appendix 2. Lag of Variable Data |   |lm1 |lsp |lcpi |lgdp |ir | |1996Q1 |10. 881099 |4. 771904 |3. 853983 |11. 716111 |19. 30 | |1996Q2 |10. 941075 |4. 819983 |3. 858643 |11. 766373 |19. 24 | |1996Q3 |10. 996819 |4. 717570 |3. 863081 |11. 827298 |19. 17 | |1996Q4 |11. 068028 |4. 810590 |3. 872063 |11. 879324 |19. 16 | |1997Q1 |11. 059818 |4. 934683 |3. 897606 |11. 889998 |18. 98 | |1997Q2 |11. 55536 |4. 941414 |3. 906252 |11. 914423 |18. 72 | |1997Q3 |11. 101311 |4. 778997 |3. 924765 |12. 002958 |23. 38 | |1997 Q4 |11. 268852 |4. 477901 |3. 959830 |12. 039144 |26. 19 | |1998Q1 |11. 495477 |4. 624532 |4. 140733 |12. 262335 |26. 33 | |1998Q2 |11. 603497 |4. 495154 |4. 309088 |12. 314070 |32. 16 | |1998Q3 |11. 538233 |4. 308177 |4. 491942 |12. 484700 |34. 93 | |1998Q4 |11. 524824 |4. 294247 |4. 538626 |12. 57244 |35. 20 | |1999Q1 |11. 568407 |4. 396215 |4. 585091 |12. 510708 |34. 11 | |1999Q2 |11. 570855 |4. 767910 |4. 578437 |12. 512071 |30. 34 | |1999Q3 |11. 679490 |4. 754038 |4. 555728 |12. 533785 |24. 52 | |1999Q4 |11. 733129 |4. 830264 |4. 555029 |12. 525806 |21. 68 | |2000Q1 |11. 733369 |4. 798267 |4. 579349 |12. 689215 |19. 58 | |2000Q2 |11. 804341 |4. 615507 |4. 589384 |12. 725801 |18. 46 | |2000Q3 |11. 16210 |4. 534614 |4. 611431 |12. 796032 |17. 98 | |2000Q4 |11. 996499 |4. 436443 |4. 639514 |12. 817033 |17. 80 | |2001Q1 |11. 907498 |4. 423641 |4. 668689 |12. 894097 |17. 85 | |2001Q2 |11. 983816 |4. 396349 |4. 695093 |12. 957670 |18. 26 | |2001Q3 |12. 009066 |4. 453272 |4. 731538 |1 2. 980581 |18. 88 | |2001Q4 |12. 088026 |4. 357638 |4. 758569 |12. 967675 |19. 20 | |2002Q1 |12. 020785 |4. 495629 |4. 804455 |13. 14972 |19. 32 | |2002Q2 |12. 066908 |4. 670443 |4. 813371 |13. 038967 |19. 18 | |2002Q3 |12. 110613 |4. 499660 |4. 830240 |13. 083051 |18. 87 | |2002Q4 |12. 164933 |4. 383610 |4. 856372 |13. 067842 |18. 42 | |2003Q1 |12. 107572 |4. 382903 |4. 879052 |13. 119451 |18. 20 | |2003Q2 |12. 181877 |4. 568618 |4. 881073 |13. 127729 |17. 68 | |2003Q3 |12. 243306 |4. 706932 |4. 889544 |13. 168067 |16. 44 | |2003Q4 |12. 18504 |4. 867750 |4. 910358 |13. 145558 |15. 43 | |2004Q1 |12. 297224 |5. 023394 |4. 926710 |13. 193018 |14. 80 | |2004Q2 |12. 328941 |5. 023446 |4. 946239 |13. 243557 |14. 28 | |2004Q3 |12. 365961 |5. 055704 |4. 956855 |13. 296856 |13. 88 | |2004Q4 |12. 412867 |5. 255827 |4. 972241 |13. 303815 |13. 54 | |2005Q1 |12. 404936 |5. 375579 |5. 001198 |13. 357168 |13. 36 | |2005Q2 |12. 475390 |5. 403708 |5. 19906 |13. 415743 |13. 29 | |2005Q3 |12. 497854 |5. 410051 |5. 037628 |13. 477237 |13. 78 | |2005Q4 |12. 510486 |5. 387751 |5. 135998 |13. 539065 |15. 78 | |2006Q1 |12. 507750 |5. 539352 |5. 157502 |13. 570606 |16. 34 | |2006Q2 |12. 624135 |5. 624725 |5. 164111 |13. 608447 |16. 23 | |2006Q3 |12. 688144 |5. 678345 |5. 176234 |13. 676882 |16. 00 | |2006Q4 |12. 757118 |5. 839146 |5. 194761 |13. 679898 |15. 5 | |2007Q1 |12. 712095 |5. 885796 |5. 219177 |13. 732362 |14. 70 | |2007Q2 |12. 826025 |6. 039466 |5. 222613 |13. 777640 |14. 08 | |2007Q3 |12. 899407 |6. 144445 |5. 239273 |13. 848229 |13. 56 | |2007Q4 |13. 017125 |6. 305412 |5. 259836 |13. 855779 |13. 11 | |2008Q1 |12. 923346 |6. 292750 |5. 292817 |13. 930695 |12. 94 | |2008Q2 |13. 023853 |6. 172412 |5. 199684 |14. 023264 |12. 95 | ———————– [pic] [pic] [pic]

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Questions Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1000 words - 9

Questions - Essay Example It cannot be described as sufficient in order to generate or even create changes with the impact that it has. As GREAT DOCS, eGov is just but the use of modern information as well as communication technologies that exists in public organizations with a bid to support or even redefine the existing or even future relations with key stakeholders in the external and internal environment and creating value. eGov might very useful when it comes to the formation of GREAT DOCS plans, actions and programs. This is because the eGOv will provide lines of creating ways in which there can be improvement of government efficiency as well as effectiveness. Further, there will be actions and programs that will be centered towards back office consolidations, the reduction of the number of duplicative systems as well as the general streamlining of the processes that exist in the government. This will give GREAT DOCS a head start as it will find it easier interacting with the government when it comes to the arranging of programs, actions and plans. Further, from a GREAT DOCS perspective, the time that is spend on the identification as well as the access to relevant information in regards to benefit programs that match GREAT DOCS specific needs is also catered for. eGov allows the local government or even the social service caseworkers to effectively identify as well as match alternative programs which can be said to stick to individual specific needs. Therefore, there is a need for the future CIO to take in mind the risks that come with eGOv, however, there is always a need to ensure that the company is strategically placed in terms of eGOv. This is because the GREAT DOCS initiative will sometimes need the intervention of eGOv and consequently there is a need for the future CIO to have a positive attitude with the initiative. (a) There are several goals and objectives that the government has when it comes to driving the process that is required in Capital planning

External and Internal Environmental Analysis Assignment

External and Internal Environmental Analysis - Assignment Example Davivienda which is renowned Colombian Bank and the bank is part of Bolivar Corporate Group, was established as mortgage and savings Corporation in the year 1972. In the next 30 years, the Columbian bank had diversified its business credit card portfolio and retail banking services (Davivienda, 2010). In 2002, the bank has established partnership with IFC in order to form Titularizadora de Colombia which is a securitization arm of the bank. In the last 10 years, Davivienda acquired financial institutions like Bansuperior, Confinanciera and Bancafà © along with its subsidiaries in order to become third largest financial institution in Columbia. At present, Davivienda has more than 21.5% market share in the credit cards portfolio (Davivienda, 2010) Davivienda has tried to implement technology up gradation such as Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP), Electronic Data Interchange (EDI) etc in order to speed up the process flow. However, still the bank lags behind global financial giants in order to ensure security of customer accounts. However, as the domestic savings in the country has decreased after economic recession hence demand for credit card has decreased slightly in Columbia in recent years. Colombian banking industry has been dominated by four major players Bogotà ¡, Davivienda, Bbva and Bancolombia and these four players contribute more than 50% of the financial sector of the country. However, Davivienda has reached third position in terms of credit balances while the bank is ranked as no. 1 in the field of agricultural banking. System side is showing overall picture of the banking industry in Colombia while the left hand side is depicting the business portfolio of Davivienda. According to the comparison, Davivienda focuses more on consumer loans in comparison to competitors and that is the reason why Davivienda is ranked second in terms of consumer loan segment in the country. Till

Fractional Distillation of Crude Oil Essay Example for Free

Fractional Distillation of Crude Oil Essay Aim: To investigate the substances given off at different temperatures from crude oil (petroleum) mixture. Apparatus: * Fractional Distillation glassware and thermometer * Clamp stand x 2 * Conical flask * Supply of cold water * Rubber tubes x 2 * Test tube rack * Small glass test tubes x 5 * Rubber stopper x 5 * Evaporating basin * Micro Bunsen Burner and bench mat * Wooden Splint * Stopwatch * Boiling stones * Crude Oil supply Method: 1. Set up the clamps stands and the fractionating glassware as shown in the diagram. 2. Connect the rubber tubes to the two open tubes of the condenser. 3. Connect the other end of the rubber tubing to a water tap and let the other one flow into a basin. Turn on the tap. 4. Place two boiling stones into the conical flask and then pour in the crude oil into the flask. Place the flask right above the micro-burner as shown in the diagram. 5. Heat the crude oil mixture slowly. Record at which temperature one of the compounds in the mixture evaporate, and then collect it in the small test tube after it passes through the condenser. 6. Repeat step 5 until maximum temperature has been reached and/or no more compounds evaporate. 7. Test the compounds which were collected. Light them in an evaporating basin and record the time it takes to run out. Results: Data Table of Results of Hydrocarbons tested Hydrocarbon Compound Boiling Point Range (à ¯Ã‚ ¿Ã‚ ½C) Colour Viscosity Pentane 36 40 Colourless Very Low Viscosity Hexane 66 69 Colourless Low Viscosity Heptane 90 94 Very slightly cloudy Viscous liquid Kerosene (Paraffin) ~ 250 Brownish black High Viscosity Conclusion: These results prove to us that firstly, crude oil being a mixture of several hydrocarbons, that the mixture provided was a simulation. Secondly, there are noticeable trends in the hydrocarbons. As the molecules gets heavier and heavier, by which I mean that we go from pentane to Hexane and so on, the viscosity of the compound increases, as well as the time taken for it to burn up completely. The boiling point also increases. These hydrocarbons belong to the first organic homologous series: Alkanes. Alkane molecules are completely saturated and each carbon atom has at least 2 hydrogen atoms attached to it. Apart from the two end carbon atoms, the other ones are attached to two other carbon atoms each. A covalent bond between a carbon atom and a hydrogen atom is strong, and a bond between two carbon atoms is also strong. It therefore takes a lot of energy to overcome this bond, and hence a higher temperature and more time is needed to break these compounds apart. The more carbon atoms an alkane possesses, the more energy is needed to break it apart. This explains the increasing boiling points, and is also one of the main reasons why hydrocarbons are used as fuels. Kerosene was the only one of the four hydrocarbons which could not be heated to its boiling point and hence the temperature recorded is the one that was given to us. It did, however, last the longest when it was burned. Therefore that result coincides with the one that was given to us. Its other properties which could be verified have given us further proof of the fact that its temperature is higher than the other hydrocarbons. Also related to the viscosity, the weight of each hydrocarbon also increased as the viscosity increased. By the time kerosene was being handled, a really wide margin of difference could be felt from pentane. Evaluation: Weakness Improvement 1 The equipment available was not enough to determine the boiling point of Kerosene Get a macro burner and heat the kerosene to its boiling point 2 The difference in viscosity between the first two hydrocarbons was hard to tell Measure the poise of the two compounds and record the difference 3 The evaporating basin in which the hydrocarbons were heated was the same all throughout Use a different evaporating basin for each compounds so that the heat from the previous test does not affect the next test 4 The main mixture provided to us was not actual crude oil, simply a simulated substitute To gather all of the compounds found in crude oil use a mixture which contains all of them kind of obvious

Laser Tissue Interaction

Laser Tissue Interaction Laser-Tissue interaction Like normal light, laser light can interact with tissue in four basic ways1 as follows: (1) Reflection: some light reflects back off the surface, its energy neither penetrating nor interacting with tissue. (2) Transmission: some (light) may be transmitted through tissue, albeit unchanged as if transparent to the laser beam and without interaction between the incident beam and the tissue. (3) Scatter: some light may penetrate the tissue and be scattered without causing a noticeable effect on the tissue2 .Scattering causes some lessening of light energy with distance, together with distortion in the beam, whereby rays proceed in an uncontrolled direction through the medium. Moreover, back-scatter can occur as the laser beam hits the tissue, most commonly in short wavelengths, e.g. diode, Nd:YAG (≠¥50% back-scatter). (4) Absorption: some light may be absorbed into a component of the tissue, whereby there will be transference of energy to the tissue, i.e. the incident energy of the beam is attenuated by the medium and transferred into another form. In clinical dentistry, depending on the value of the energy, there is conversion into heat or, in the case of very low values, photobiostimulation of receptor tissue sites (e.g. sun-bathing the stimulation of ‘tanning melanocytes by low-grade UV sunlight versus the damaging sun-burn with higher exposure values) Laser wavelength absorption and tissue composition Laser tissue interactions, as described above, are not exclusive and occur in varying proportions within tissues depending on the chemical and or molecular variation found within such complex biological systems. The degree of interaction is usually proportional to the level of absorption of a particular wavelength by tissue. Tissue elements that absorb a particular wavelength or spectrum of light energy to a high degree are called chromophores. All (organic) matter has the property of ‘absorption specificity which determines how it reacts to incident radiation. Indeed, the preferential absorption of specific wavelengths of radiant energy by chromophores within tissues accounts for the unique interactions that occur between the monochromatic light energy of lasers and various tissue elements. Laser wavelengths thus affect certain, inter-related components of the target tissue, that is: its water content; colour; and chemical composition. In dentistry, oral tissue comprises one o r more chromophores haemoglobin, melanin and allied pigmented proteins, (carbonated) hydroxyapatite, and water. Generally speaking, any predominantly pigmented tissue absorbs shorter laser wavelengths (i.e. visible and near infra-red), whereas non-pigmented tissue absorbs longer wavelengths. Consequently, absorption peaks of water and (carbonated) hydroxyapatite, coincident with Er:YAG, Er:YSGG and CO2 wavelengths, would support the potentially advantageous use of these lasers in hard tissue management. Moreover, oral soft tissues mainly comprise water, which predominantly controls the tissue effects of laser emissions within the infrared spectrum, such as CO2. Therefore, CO2 laser energy is absorbed very efficiently by tissue fluids with minimal penetration beyond the surface2. Conversely, water is comparatively transparent to the emission of the Nd:YAG laser, which accounts for its tendency to penetrate deeper into tissue. In this way, whereas CO2 wavelength might penetrate oral epithelia to a depth of 0.1-0.2 mm, Nd: YAG and diode wavelengths can result in an equivalent-power penetration of 4-6 mm.3 Light Absorption in Tissue Absorption characteristics for various wavelengths in four absorption media (oxyhaemoglobin, melanin, hydroxyapatite and water). The absorption coefficient is plotted as a function of the wavelength, and the absorption coefficient for a given material is plotted on this graph. A high absorption coefficient means the given laser wavelength is well absorbed in the selected medium. A low absorption corresponds with a greater degree of transparency allowing the light to penetrate deeper into the medium. Note that the vertical scale is logarithmic; that is, each grid line is equivalent to a change of the absorption coefficient by 1 order of magnitude (factor 10). Photobiological Effect The overriding beneficial effect of laser energy is absorption of the light by the target tissue and the transfer of laser energy, thus causing a tissue interaction (Photobiological Effect). There are four basic interactions that can occur following absorption of laser energy: (1) Photochemical (Photochemolysis): certain wavelengths of laser light are absorbed by naturally occurring chromophores or wavelength- specific light absorbing substances that are able to induce certain biochemical reactions at cellular level. Derivatives of naturally occurring chromophores or dyes have been used as photosensitizers to induce biological reactions within tissues for both diagnostic and therapeutic applications. Photochemical interactions include photobiostimulation, photodynamic therapy, and tissue fluorescence. Certain biological pigments, upon absorbing laser light, can fluoresce, which can be used for detecting teeth caries. Lasers can also be used in a non- surgical mode for biostimulation or more rapid wound healing, pain relief, increased collagen growth and a general anti- inflammatory effect. Photodynamic interaction is demonstrated by PAD (Photo-Activated Disinfection) in which a 635nm laser used to activate a dye solution of tolonium chloride placed in a ca rious cavity or root canal. Activation of the tolonium chloride releases oxygen species which disrupt the membranes of micro-organisms found in caries, periodontal pockets and root canals. (2) Photothermal (Photothermolysis): light energy absorbed by the tissues is transformed into heat energy which then produces tissue effects as follows: Coagulation and haemostasis: from 60oC to 70oC, this is the secondary effects through conduction of the heat generated. Photopyrolysis: from 65oC to 90oC, target tissue proteins undergo permanent morphological change (protein denaturation) as result of dissociation of covalent bonds. Photovaporolysis: at 100oC +, inter- and intra-cellular water in soft tissue and interstitial water in hard tissue is vaporised. This destructive phase transfer results in expansive volume change, which can aid the ablative effect of the laser by dissociating large tissue elements. This will be carried onto a further phase: transfer to hydrocarbon gases and production of residual carbon (carbonization).4 The amount of laser energy absorbed by the tissue largely determines the thermal interaction produced and is in turn dependant on the wavelength of the laser light to a great degree, but also on other parameters such as spot size, power density, pulse duration and frequency, and the optical properties and composition of the tissue irradiated. The CO2 (10600nm) is highly absorbed by the water content of oral soft tissues, whereby 90% of the energy is absorbed within the first 100 microns of penetrating the tissue surface5. Hence, even at relatively low power densities using a focused beam, there is rapid tissue vaporization of the water with charring and burning of the organic content of the tissue. Photothermal interaction causes the irradiated target tissue to absorb the laser energy and converts it into heat, thereby producing a direct temperature rise in the irradiated tissue volume. When this energy is applied for long enough, heat conduction will cause a temperature rise in surrounding tissues as well. Hence, thermal effects, such as coagulation necrosis, are produced indirectly in collateral areas and are one of the mechanisms responsible for haemostasis when cutting or vaporizing with a laser. (3) Thermal relaxation Heat dissipation or diffusion from the irradiated tissue site will determine the extent of collateral damage seen and is largely dependant on the thermal conductivity of the tissue. The time required for diffusion of the heat or ‘thermal relaxation time is defined as the time required for the accumulated heat energy within the tissue mass to cool to 37% of its original value6. The degree of heat conduction and rate of tissue cooling both determine the extent of collateral tissue damage for a given wavelength of laser light and tissue type. The composition of the tissue in terms of its structure, water content and vascularity will greatly determine heat conduction/tissue cooling and therefore collateral damage. Moreover, factors such as the volume and surface area of tissue irradiated will also influence the rate of heat dissipation. With continuous laser emission there is no thermal relaxation time, but with pulsed emissions there are brief periods of time allowing for heat dissipation or cooling between pulses7. Tissues should be allowed a period of cooling approximately three times their thermal relaxation time to avoid accumulation of heat energy in surrounding tissue and therefore collateral damage. This can be managed effectively using a combination of appropriate power density and pulse duration for the desired procedure8, 9. Factors that influence thermal relaxation are summarized as follows: Laser absorption characteristics of the target tissue Laser emission mode : continuous wave or pulsed emission Laser incident power Laser power density Beam movement: relative to tissue site; rapid laser beam movement will reduce heat build-up and aid thermal relaxation. Endogenous coolant: water content and vascularity of the tissue. Exogenous coolant: water, air, pre-cooling of tissue.10, 11 (4) Photomechanical and photoelectrical: These are non- thermal interactions produced by high energy, short pulsed laser light, including: photodisruption, photodisassociation, photoplasmolysis and photoacoustic interaction. Absorption of laser energy pulses results in rapid expansion or generation of shock waves that are capable of rupturing intermolecular and atomic bonds (photo-disruption or photodisassociation ). Thus, the laser beams energy is transformed into vibration or kinetic energy. A pulse of laser energy on hard dentinal tissues can produce a shock wave, which might explode or pulverize the tissue, creating an abraded crater. This is an example of the photoacoustic effect of laserlight.12 Photoplasmolysis is a process of tissue removal through the formation of electrically charged ions and particles that exist in‘plasma state, a semi-gaseous, high -energy state which is neither solid, liquid, or gas.13 This process is observed in ultra-short pulsed lasers, e.g. Nd: YAG, Er:YAG, with pulse widths of

Application of Positivist Theory in Criminology

Application of Positivist Theory in Criminology Positivist Theory and its Implications on the James Holmes Case Over the years, various theoretical frameworks have been proposed to explain the nature and causation of crimes. This includes the collective positivist theory, particularly the biological and psychological trait theories as explanations on why individuals commit certain crimes. The positivist tradition in criminology suggests that psychological, biological, and even social forces determine a person’s criminal behavior, hence noting that the criminal act is beyond the control of the person. To examine this theory and its implications to crime, one may analyze the case of James Holmes, the suspect of mass shooting at the Century movie house in Aurora, Colorado, killing 12 people on July 20, 2012. Investigations revealed that the alleged perpetrator had history of mental consultations, which strongly affirmed issues with his mental well-being. Considering that Holmes exhibited substantial signs and symptoms indicative of mental illness, prompt diagnosis and treatment might have prevented the fatal Aurora shooting; true to the goals of a positivist psychology, it is also best to manage Holmes through a treatment in a mental health facility, rather than a criminal punishment. Before examining how a psychological diagnosis and treatment might have prevented Holmes’ criminal act, it would be imperative to briefly discuss a specific sub-theory of the positivist psychology: the trait theory. The trait theory is an umbrella term that encompasses a combination of various biological, psychological, and social factors that predispose an individual to develop and exhibit criminal behavior (van Gelder de Vries, 2012). These factors can be present at birth and may continually influence a person’s social functioning over his or her life course. Biologically, criminal behaviors may be attributed to factors such as genetics, hormones, metabolism, and neuro-physiological conditions. The trait theory also turns to the psychodynamics of a person to determine underlying mood disorders, personality traits, and cognitive patterns that result to criminal behavior. The theory likewise integrates social factors including social learning and environmental constrai nts as potential causes of criminal behavior or delinquency. As will be explained in the succeeding parts of this essay, Holmes had mental health issues that feature a combination of these factors. There are several indicators and clinical pathways that would have prevented Holmes from committing the mass shooting in Aurora, beginning with his prior psychological assessments. Reports note that the accused gunman had appointments with three mental health practitioners before the violent rampage. These experts include Dr. Lynne Fenton, the head psychiatrist of the mental health services of University of Colorado (Denver) (BBC, 2013). Dr. Fenton sent a report to the university’s threat assessment team regarding Holmes’ risk for homicidal behavior, but final diagnosis and follow-up evaluations were not carried out (Rosenberg, 2014). There were also other indicators of the gunman’s psychological disturbance, including a â€Å"bizarre guttural, freakish† personal voicemail message (BBC, 2013). While the results of Holmes’ post-arrest mental health assessment remain confidential, psychologists believe that the gunman might be suffering from schizoph renia and psychopathy (Solty, 2012). These conditions could explain Holmes’ impaired ideation or sense of reality as well as his propensity to commit violence. Nonetheless, issues about his mental well-being were not promptly diagnosed and treated. Psychotherapy would have â€Å"contained† and managed his hallucinations and impaired thought processes, hence the prevention of the fatal shooting. As noted earlier, the trait theory also includes biological factors that combine with psychological factors that, when promptly addressed, could have prevented Holmes from attacking and killing civilians. Similar to his psychological assessment, published evidences of a neurobiological trauma or head injury were absent. However, one may add the possibility of brain trauma or brain tumor as an underlying or aggravating factors for his mental health issue. The planning and execution of mass killing itself attest to the gunman’s lack of empathy and reasonable judgment. These traits are characteristic of damage in the orbitofrontal cortex part of the brain (Burke, 2014). In other words, brain imaging studies such as a magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and computed tomography (CT) scanning can help validate or rule out the aforementioned conditions. The quantification and measurement offered by these diagnostic tests are central to the positivist psychology. In any case, it would ha ve added to an effective clinical management to prevent Holmes from exhibiting violence. Moreover, the trait theory also provides an explanation for the social dimensions that might have influenced Holmes’ criminal behavior. One may begin by looking at the following analysis of Solty (2012): It is clear that Holmes seems to have felt himself to be in a hopeless situation. And as a man he didn’t have the increasingly popular option of female students in North America of becoming an entrepreneur of one’s own youthful†¦ [and] in his obvious desperation Holmes anticipated his suspension [from the University of Colorado]. He prepared and pursued his own de-matriculation. In his state, he must have realized that he would probably no longer be a top performer. (p.10) The above description highlights that there are constraining social factors that might have led to Holmes’ frustrations. Media reports note that Holmes never had a romantic relationship prior to the shooting incident; he was also rejected by the women whom he contacted at a casual dating website (BBC, 2013). A consistent achiever, Holmes might have been affected by a decline in his academic performance, which led to his plan to withdraw from the university. Thus, feelings of social rejection also add another angle to Holmes’ criminal behavior. Experts also found a link between Holmes’ fondness for video games, relative to the popular vigilante figure- Batman, and aggression. Simply put, the gunman’s violent tendencies might also be reinforced through social learning. Considerations for these social factors could have also solidified any psychiatric diagnosis and determine appropriate clinical interventions to address Holmes’ mental health issues. Convinced that Holmes’ criminal behavior was a result of biological and psychosocial factors beyond his control, it is reasonable to insist that the appropriate intervention would be confinement and treatment to a mental health facility. This view also conforms to the core tradition of criminological positivism in that it places emphasis on therapy or rehabilitation, rather than punishment exemplified by incarceration or death penalty. It must be re-emphasized that Holmes was and continues to have substantial psychological issues that impair his judgment and sense of reality. While in jail, he even committed suicide attempts (BBC, 2013). Without psychotherapy and other treatment modalities to manage his mental health condition, containing and incarcerating Holmes would only be futile. In particular, studies note that the rate of recidivism among mentally-ill inmates could be as high as 80% because they receive lack or insufficient psychiatric treatments inside the prison (Burk e, 2014). The ability of the trait theory to sufficiently explain the host of factors for Holmes’ criminal behavior only indicates that the final resolution to this case would be an intervention that follows a positivist approach. Overall, Holmes provides a case in point as to how various factors may work to develop a criminal mind among people who are susceptible to violence. This gunman shows that personality traits and the elements of these traits could eventually reach its maximum tolerance, depriving a person of any remaining rationality and sense of reality. Psychological and criminological positivism suggests that such criminal behavior could have been prevented or managed through prompt diagnosis and treatment. Now that damage was already done, the only way forward is to treat and rehabilitate the psychologically unstable gunman. References BBC. (2013, April 1). Profile: Aurora cinema shooting suspect James Holmes. Retrieved from http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-18937513 Burke, R. H. (2014). An introduction to criminological theory (4th ed.). New York: Routledge. Rosenberg, J. (2014). Mass shootings and mental health policy. Journal of Sociology Social Welfare, 41(1), 107-121. Solty, I. (2012). Dear Left: The NRA is right – The mass shooter as high-achiever: Historical-materialist considerations on the resistible fall of James Holmes and the pathologization and culturalization of the cinema massacre in Aurora, Colorado. Socialism Democracy, 26(3), 1-13. Retrieved from 10.1080/08854300.2012.722372 van Gelder, J.-L., de Vries, R. E. (2012). Traits and states: Integrating personality and affect into a model of criminal decision making* traits and states. Criminology, 50(3), 637-671. doi:10.1111/j.1745-9125.2012.00276.x

Pakistans Relationship with IMF and World Bank Essay -- Pakistan Econ

Pakistan's Relationship with IMF and World Bank My topic deals with Pakistan, its relationship with the IMF and World Bank, and its internal problems that are causing unemployment, poverty, economic crisis and hunger. I shall be analyzing the situation using the neo-classical theory, as it is what the economists of the Pakistan government and the IMF are using to alleviate the economic instability of the country. Situated in the sub-continent, Pakistan is a low-income country, with great promise for growth. Unfortunately, it is held back from reaching middle-income status by chronic problems like a rapidly growing population, sizable government deficits, a heavy dependence on foreign aid, recurrent governmental instability and large military expenditures. It is to address these fundamental faults in Pakistan’s economy that the IMF has initiated the Structural Adjustment Programs (SAPs) in the country. This is discussed in further detail later in the paper. Like all developing countries, Pakistan’s population is largely employed in the agricultural sector, which accounts for about 48 percent of the labor force. In today’s world the Industrial and Service sectors are the largest growing areas of a developed county’s economy. Yet Pakistan only employs 39 percent of its population in Service, and a minute 13 percent in Industry. This is a paltry figure, compared to the employment statistics of a developed country. Pakistan is also heavily dependent on a single export crop, cotton. Hence the country’s fortunes rise and fall with the cotton market. It is no wonder that there are so many poverty stricken people in Pakistan. When almost half the population is involved in a very volatile market, a lot of the time, a lot of people will be burnt by price fluctuations. The country is also subject to the mercy of the weather. Focussing on a major cash crop means very little diversification. This translates to mass hunger and hard times for the agricultural sector whenever the agrarian lands are ravaged by floods, or conversely, by droughts. Even more importantly, Pakistan’s agricultural sector is marked by large landowners, controlling most of the production. Hence, only a minimal amount of the profit from exports goes to the poor people working for the large farmers. It is these people who constitute a large portion of P... ... what appears to be an inevitable crash of its economy. The situation of the poor and under privileged could also be alleviated eventually as long as the government decides to start spending money on developing an infrastructure that can help feed the hungry by providing them with jobs. Nevertheless, there are no easy options left. Only the painful ones remain. It is, however, important that the pain of reform be distributed equitably, and not born largely by the poorer classes, as is very often the case. There are tough times ahead. Unfortunately, there is little evidence that the Pakistani ruling elite is aware of the gravity of the situation; or that it has what it will take to steer the country out of its mess. Bibliography: Bibliography: Andleeb Abbas, ‘Pakistan: A Puppet on the IMF Chain’ M Sharif, ‘IMF tranche $280 mn: Prof. M Rashid, ‘Fracturing Social Change’ IMF online resources World Bank online resources Pakistan Budget Report, 98-99 Dialogue between IMF and Pakistan, ’99 Lappe, Collins, Rosset, Esparza, ‘World Hunger’ Prof. Dr. M.A. Hussein Mullick, ‘Pulling the country out of its present financial crisis: the challenge for the present regime’

Damien rice analysis :: essays research papers

My Eyes Bringing Desire to Christina’s World: Dependency and Hope in the World of a Handicap   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã¢â‚¬Å"I can’t take my eyes off of you.† is repeated many times in the song â€Å"The Blower’s daughter†, which means quite a bit. With the poem and to the painting, the song expresses the feeling in both of the eyes of a handicap person and in the eyes of another person who loves them. Handicapped people require all the attention in the world, and even when they aren’t being attended to, someone is thinking about them. In the painting, the artist depicts a young girl, who seems to be crawling toward a home on a hill quite the distance away. She seems to be quite thin and weak, which hints at the point there may be a physical problem with her. In the poem, the farmer and his family give birth to a handicapped child and while watching her sleep, can see the desire and peacefulness in her. â€Å"His thoughts while they are resting. She’s only imagining, stalks of yellow flowers flush and frilled and rippling, and a song of h ours. On this and all the world’s resources, she lingers, lit up like a votive.† which means that she is only thinking about the most peaceful things in the world, and no matter what happens while she is awake, those thoughts inside of her will not be changed. These examples express the thought of someone being different or struggling to live. With the picture of a weak girl crawling to a home-looking building and the constant attention both shown in the song and the poem, these three things all connect in a certain way. They connect in the way of love and caring. They connect in a way that shows the desire and the determination anyone can see in a handicapped person’s eyes. In the song by Damien Rice, it seems, that quite possibly someone has fallen in love with someone. It does not have to be what everyone thinks. Love is not just something between two people, this could also be something felt by a father to a daughter, or a mother to a son, in a completely non sexual and non physical way. The father, who is a farmer in the poem â€Å"Bringing Desire to The Fields†, seems to be in love with his handicapped daughter. He thinks about her constantly, even when he is about to sleep.

Civil Disobedience By Thoreau

Philosophers, historians, authors, and politicians have spent centuries pondering the relationship between citizens and their government. It is a question that has as many considerations as there are forms of government and it is rarely answered satisfactorily. A relatively modern theorist, author Henry Thoreau, introduced an idea of man as an individual, rather than a subject, by thoroughly describing the way a citizen should live many of his works. He indirectly supplements the arguments he presents in his essay Civil Disobedience through a comprehensive selection of adages found in his other works. In articular, the phrases  «A simple and independent mind does not toil at the bidding of any prince » and  «To be awake is to be alive. I have never met a man who is quite awake » support many of the arguments in Civil Disobedience because they help to explicate the complex ideas Thoreau presents. The phrase  «A simple and independent mind does not toil at the bidding of any prince » regards the responsibilities of a man to his own consciousnessit is a duty that can not be revoked by any form of tyrant. Rather than hinting at a type of anarchy, this statement merely describes each mans duty to performing justice in all his actions. This does not refer to any  «mans duty to devote himself to the eradication of any, even the most enormous wrong; he may still properly have other concerns to engage him; but it is his duty, at least, to wash his hands of it, and, if he gives it no thought longer, not to give it practically his support » (681). The term  «simple » does not refer to an underdeveloped sense of morality; it describes a state of mind in which the concept of justice is so defined that contradictions cannot exist. To toil, as it is presented in this quotation, means to sacrifice ideals for the sake of conformity or law. The only real power the State holds over any individual is the promise of brute force; it  «never intentionally confronts a mans sense, intellectual or moral, but only his body, his senses » (687). Therefore, many acts the State requires will be unjustthey can and will force a man to slave for the sake of an ordeal he does not believe in. As Thoreau notes in Civil Disobedience,  «a wise man will only be useful as a man » (678). In essence, Thoreau believes that a man who toils at any ruling institutions bidding simply because it bid him to do so sacrifices his own facilities as a human being. He then becomes nothing more than a man put  «on a level with wood and earth and stones Command[ing] no more respect than men of straw, or a lump of dirt » (678). Another quotation that helps to explicate Thoreaus Civil Disobedience is  «To be awake is to be alive. I have never yet met a man who was quite awake. In this phrase, Thoreau uses the term  «awake » as an euphemism for being fully aware of ones concept of right and fully in control of ones moral and physical existence. Understandably, people who are consistently awake, in this sense of the word, are hard to find:  «There are ine hundred and ninety-nine patrons of virtue to one virtuous man » (680). Also, the fact that Thoreau has  «never met a man who was quite awake » implies that fully conscious individuals have difficulty existing in modern society. In fact, Thoreau believes that  «no man with a genius for legislation has appeared in America. They are rare in the history of the world » (692). Perhaps, by the word  «awake, » and its equation with  «alive, » Thoreau is also referring to the ability to fulfill his own mission:  «I came into this world, not chiefly to make this a good place to live in, but to live in it, be it good or bad » (683). Although this concept is not a particularly unique one, it is nearly impossible to fulfill completelybut to fulfill it partially is useless. As a living being, one must  «cast your whole vote, not a strip of paper merely, but your whole influence » (684). To truly be alive, one must be consciously satisfied with every passing moment. Through his conscientious support of every facet of his philosophy, Thoreau effectively proves his statements regarding citizenship and government. He remains consistent to nearly every idea he presents and therefore surrounds them with a seriousness that cannot be ignored.

Action Plan for New Nivea in a New Market Segment

The improving economic conditions in various parts of the world provide individual companies with market opportunities that need to be exploited completely. Some Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FCMG) manufacturers have already made this move whereas others are still concentrating on traditional highly developed economies. This paper illustrates how Nivea, the skin care manufacturer, can exploit market opportunities offered by the fast developing nations. The paper will specifically extrapolate on how Nivea can develop a wholly new skin care product that would be marketed to specific market segments in the aforementioned nations. The first section highlights on external audit of the new market and product situation, whereas the second part provides internal audit. An action plan for two months before product launching and 12 months after the launch is illustrated throughout the paper. Part I: External Audit The fast developing nations, especially in Asia, provides FCMG manufacturers with grand opportunity to expand global sales. The past three decades have indeed seen disposable incomes in formerly poor countries s increase tremendously. China and India are the best example of countries whose inhabitants have experienced ever-increasing incomes. Higher incomes mean that Indians and Chinese are able to afford products that seemed to be luxury before. Skin care products fall in such category, meaning that Nivea has a ripe market its product portfolio. The younger generation in both countries is especially the ones that Nivea needs to target. The growing taste of luxurious skin care products demands that Nivea embark on supplying products to this lucrative market segment. In addition, the company has to consider developing new products that are specifically designed for this generation; just supplying products from traditional markets might not make significant impact. This market segment need products they can easily associate with, not just imports. Developing a product specifically for the Asian market would therefore get better reception before competitors think of making a similar move. Customers in this market segment would take a pride in using product specifically developed for their uses, as the company reaps benefits through improved sales and market dominance. Nivea is not the only skin care product manufacturer eying the lucrative Asian market, as other global companies are making onslaught in the region (Haig 2006). A greater number of competitors are also supplying imported products to this market segment, meaning that Nivea would be making the initial move of developing and marketing products for this new market. Nivea competitors in these markets can be classified into three groups. First is the group consisting of local manufacturers that have been in the business for many years. The availability of modern technology has enabled these local players to perfect respective products to international. The perfection of respective products mean that indigenous companies are able of competing effectively and defend their market position. The second group includes international players with experience in other markets. This group is most competitive and indeed the one that Nivea should not ignore. The improving economic situation in the region will continue attracting more competition from existing firms. The third group includes companies willing to enter into the Asian lucrative skin care market. Nivea management should further consider that local and international companies could get into joint ventures that could be hard to out-compete. The company should therefore consider a similar approach. A joint marketing venture with local companies should especially be considered in the two months before the launch. This is in understanding that professionals working on local companies have better understanding on consumers and their needs (Riezebos, Kist & Kootsra 2003). PESTLE Analysis Pestle Analysis is hereby used to illustrate externalities that Nivea will have to handle in the process of introducing new product in the market segment. These are the issues that the company has little control; they factors are discussed below in detail: Political This factor refers to issues that may affect company operations and thus entry of the new products into the new market segment. National or regional politics have recently determined trade issues in various parts of the world, including Asia. Senior management should therefore consider being informed on political policies that may affect future business. China and India have been on the forefront on the process of creating friendly political processes for companies to establish operations (Pelsmacker 2006). Nivea is thus poised to benefit from friendly trade regime from the two countries. The company can even take advantage of improving investment opportunities in the region to produce therein and consequently supply to other countries in the region as well as worldwide. The company will thus be creating a strong foundation for competitiveness against local and international industry players. Economic: This is among the driving factors leading to Nivea’s entry into the Indian and Chinese young adult market segment. Indeed, as described earlier, this segment has been experiencing expanding disposable incomes that can be used to become Nivea customers. Just like in other countries, the expanding middle class in China and India are having influence over rest of society that would like to copy behavior (Kapferer 2004). Endearing Nivea products to the middle class would eventually see rest of population in the two countries becoming consumers. The region holds good fortunes considering that economic progress being experienced currently is poised to continue in coming decades. It is for this reason that Nivea should seize the opportunity of embarking on supplying new products in the Asian sub-market. Social: This factor regards social sensitiveness that the company has to consider, especially before entering the market segments. This should especially be considered in the two months prior to supplying company products in the region. The social issues should further be considered when preparing for advertisements that must not be offending in any way. In addition, the target market should be able to connect with the product socially, which could include packaging and presentation. Having products connecting with people socially, or which tend to promote local culture would go a long way in endearing the new Nivea to target market. Any clash with the local culture and customs could result to the company being out competed by other industrial players. Technological: The technological factor refers to production and production processes used to manufacture products and subsequently supply to consumers. Nivea management should in the two months before rolling out the products ensure putting the technology in place. In addition, Nivea’s senior management should embark on being on the forefront of using modern technologies that would improve productivity. Embarking on taking this route would provide the company with long run high productivity, meaning that only high quality products would be generated from Nivea. Relying on technology for continued quality improvement would result to more endearment with consumers in the region. Management should thus embark on improving technology in order to keep improving. Environmental: The environmental factor is hereby taken to mean issues affecting the industry as a whole. This especially includes the size of competition and the future of the industry. The number of competitors is a key determinant of competitiveness. Few players does not necessarily mean low competition as more companies can enter the industry in later time periods. Industrial effect on environment is also addressed in this factor. Participants have to thus ensure reducing and totally eliminating the effect of operations on the environment, such pollution. Governments in various parts of the world have heavy fines and punishments to companies and individuals whose operations affect environment negatively. Companies have on the other hand embarked on reducing effects on environment as part of their corporate social responsibility (Bruhn 2002), which is something that Nivea should take seriously in China and India. Legislative: This factor applies to government policies that could affect operations relating to production and supply of skin care products in respective jurisdictions. This is a factor that Nivea cannot in any way control. The company should be well prepared to deal with new legislations that could come before and after launching new products in the market. In addition, the responsible managers should embark on developing ways and means of coping with operational changes that could come with new legislations. Overcoming legislative challenges should form the key foundation for success in the market segments, considering positive relationship between the company regulatory authorities and consumers. Part II: Internal Audit This second part highlights internal factors that Nivea can use to create strong foundation for success in the new market segments and its new product line. The company has been in the business of manufacturing and supplying skin care products since 1911 (Nivea 2008). The company has since expanded operations to many parts of the world, but has in most cases supplied products manufactured for older market. Indeed, the current undertaking would be among few occasions that Nivea has embarked on developing new products for new markets. The SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats) Analysis below illustrates how the company needs to apply before, during and after launching. Strengths: Nivea’s track record of manufacturing is among the strengths that will make market penetration in the new segment possible. Company products thus command a huge following in historical markets, which could be replicated in the new markets. The strength of going at greater lengths to meet consumer demands is best being applied in the Asian market through new products. This start by designing products that easily meet consumer skin care needs adequately. The second step is the organizational culture of getting customer feedback on all products, whether new or old in respective markets (Flapper 2005; Pecotich 2006). This allows consumers to express their concerns or satisfactions with the products. The target market in India and China would thus get opportunities to inform Nivea representatives on how the new products could be improved. The company can thus embark on improving the products in line with consumer demands and tastes. The long-term result is continued improvement of company products’ competitiveness in the lucrative Asian market. Weaknesses: The entry into wholly new market segment with brand new products serves as the greatest weakness, considering that the company has certainly never had such undertaking in the region. There are few learning opportunities for the involved officials to get lessons. However, notes Keller (2006) Nivea has a history of turning weaknesses into business opportunities that have been exploited to the maximum—this should also happen with introduction on new products in the Asian sub-market, especially in the beginning stages. Opportunities: The improving economic conditions in the fast developing Asian countries provide ripe market for Nivea skincare products. Ever increasing segment of the populations having more funds to spend on company products. Nivea should thus position itself in tapping into this lucrative market. In addition, the company should take advantage of the improving business environment in the region. China and India are increasingly becoming competitive in the international arena, which has resulted to many companies setting operations there. Companies that have taken advantage of reduced operational costs. Nivea, too, should embark on setting foot in the two countries, and subsequently produce for local market and export to other countries. Threats: Competition from local and international firms brings out major threats for Nivea entry into the new company. Local companies have for many years been able to perfect respective products to international standards (Hymes 2007). This has made them formidable competitors in skin care industry. New entrants therefore understand they are up against tough players. Naivea management further needs to consider that international skin care industry participants are also eying the same Asian market, which compounds competitive challenges. Bust as illustrated earlier, Nivea has had a history of outdoing competition on many fronts. Repeating this feat in China and India is thus more likely to happen.